One number should scare the daylights out of every Democrat in America

Republicans, Democrats, and election analysts are sifting through the data from November and beginning to come to some startling conclusions.

There is nothing but bad news for the Democrat Party.

And one number should scare the daylights out of every Democrat in America.

America grows redder

Ever since the New Deal, Democrats held an advantage in party registration.

There were simply more registered Democrats in America than Republicans.

The GOP still won elections, but the big question would be to what degree the electorate would be more Democrat than Republican.

Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini wrote about this effect on his substack.

“Until Ronald Reagan remade the Republican Party’s image in the 1980s, Democrats held a massive advantage in party ID that often reached 2-to-1 in the 1960s and ‘70s. Only after Reagan’s 1984 landslide did the modern narrow Democratic advantage take hold, where it’s stayed for the most part ever since,” Ruffini wrote.

2024 was a completely different animal.

One reason pollsters missed Donald Trump winning the popular vote was because they worked under the old assumptions and modeled electorates that were more Democrat than Republican.

This year the electorate was four points more Republican than Democrat.

Pollsters ignored the warning signs, such as Gallup showing that for the first time ever, more Americans identified as Republicans than Democrats.

In the election, every demographic group except white college graduates shifted to the right from 2020.

Ruffini argued this likely isn’t a response to the unpopularity of the failed Biden administration, but rather a reflection of long term trends as the parties coalitions realigned themselves.

“Does the Republican advantage this year signal something more than a period of parity—but perhaps dominance? Trump is a cultural icon who’s provided a rallying point for young and minority voters to vote for a Republican for the first time,” Ruffini wrote.

“If he plays his cards right — restoring the sense of pre-Covid stability and normalcy, securing the border, and Elon-ifying the federal bureaucracy — he could prove a transformational figure just like Reagan was for Republicans in the 1980s,” Ruffini added.

Data backs up Ruffini’s argument.

Swing states like Pennsylvania have been trending red for years, according to voter registration data.

NBC News reported that “in March 2021, there were 630,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in Pennsylvania. In October 2024, this discrepancy was cut in half, now standing at around 300,000.”

There are three kinds of elections – change, status quo, and realignment.

Biden’s low approval ratings had many believing this was simply a change election where the electorate booted the incumbent party.

But a closer look at the data and the party identification numbers shows that when all is said and done, 2024 may very well have been a realignment election.