Fox News Shook Up Its Midterm Map and One Move Lands in Tim Walz’s Backyard

Tim Walz quit his reelection bid in January as Minnesota's fraud scandal swallowed his administration.

Now Fox News has reshuffled its midterm rankings, with about 20 House races moving in one update.

And one Senate shift lands right in the state Walz left in shambles.

Fox News Moved About 20 House Races in One Update

The latest Fox News Power Rankings did not tinker around the edges.

Roughly 20 House races moved in a single update, and they moved toward Democrats.

New York's 21st, once Solid Republican, slid to Likely Republican, and a recent survey there had the Democrat up 46 to 42.

Kentucky's 6th and Texas's 15th drifted away from the GOP, and Maine's open 2nd District is now a pure toss-up.

Fox News now rates the House likely out of reach for Republicans this year.

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Democrats' generic ballot lead is "wider and more enduring than it was in the 2018 'blue wave' election," according to the rankings.

On a good night, Democrats land around 237 House seats, and even a strong Republican night leaves the GOP about two seats short.

The Senate map moved too.

Kansas slid into the Lean column, while Georgia and North Carolina moved out of it.

Then came Minnesota, where the open Senate seat dropped from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat.

That is the one Senate move that clearly breaks toward Republicans, and it makes Minnesota the ninth battleground state.

Minnesota's Senate Seat Is No Longer Safe for Democrats

One poll has Democrat Peggy Flanagan at 47 percent, Republican Michele Tafoya at 43 percent, and 9 percent undecided.

The RealClearPolling average has Flanagan up by less than two points.

Kamala Harris won Minnesota by about four points in 2024.

Tafoya is sitting inside that margin with an October 16 debate on the calendar.

Through late July, she had raised $5.3 million to Flanagan's $6.5 million, close enough to stay competitive on the air.

Minnesota has not sent a Republican to the Senate since Norm Coleman won in 2002.

Michele Tafoya Against Walz's Lieutenant Governor

Tafoya worked NBC's sidelines through five Super Bowls and 327 NFL games and won four Sports Emmys.

Flanagan has been Walz's lieutenant governor since 2019.

That is the whole race in two sentences.

Walz's exit statement claimed he could not run a full campaign while also fighting off fraudsters.

A June Star Tribune poll had his approval at 39 percent, with 53 percent disapproving.

The Trump administration had already frozen federal child-care money to Minnesota after a viral video alleged fraud at Somali-run daycare centers.

Minnesota Republican Tom Emmer summed it up in two words.

"Good riddance," Emmer said.

The Justice Department has charged nearly 80 people in the Feeding Our Future scheme, which stole roughly $250 million meant to feed hungry kids.

Ringleader Aimee Bock got 500 months in federal prison.

The U.S. attorney in Minnesota has warned total fraud losses across state programs could top $1 billion.

All of it happened on the Walz-Flanagan watch.

Tafoya made fraud her first priority, with a plan to deport immigrants convicted of it, impose mandatory sentences, and withhold federal dollars from states that won't put anti-fraud safeguards in place.

Flanagan's campaign website does not mention fraud at all.

She is running instead on Medicare for All and shutting down Trump's mass deportations.

The Senate Firewall Runs Through Six Toss-Up States

Fox News rates 47 Senate seats for each party, with six toss-ups most likely to decide control.

Republicans keep every seat they hold now by winning all six.

They need only three of the six to hold control, with Vice President JD Vance breaking ties.

Susan Collins is defending Maine, Jon Husted is taking on Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Michael Whatley is battling Roy Cooper in North Carolina.

Mike Rogers is chasing an open Democrat seat in Michigan.

Republicans are pouring money into the six toss-ups plus Kansas.

NRSC chairman Tim Scott says the party and its allies have more than $400 million to spend, and he has put Tafoya on his list of races to win.

"Money will not be our problem," Scott said.

Republicans Lost the House in 2018 and Still Grew the Senate

This has happened before.

In 2018, Democrats picked up 41 House seats and the media declared a blue wave.

Republicans still added to their Senate majority that same night.

That Senate majority confirmed Trump's judges for two more years while Nancy Pelosi ran the House.

A Democrat House means Speaker Hakeem Jeffries, subpoenas, and impeachment chatter from day one.

A Republican Senate means none of it becomes law and Trump's nominees keep moving.

Collins, Husted, Whatley, Rogers, and Tafoya are the names standing between Chuck Schumer and the majority leader's office.

That firewall now runs straight through the state where Tim Walz let fraudsters loot a children's meal program.

An NFL sideline legend has a real shot at taking that seat from Walz's right hand.

Sources:

• Rémy Numa, "Fox News Power Rankings: As the House Falls, the Senate Stays in Play," Fox News, October 13, 2026.
• Nicole Silverio, "Midterms Appear Grim for GOP – But Michele Tafoya Within Striking Distance in Minnesota," Daily Caller, October 11, 2026.
• Paul Steinhauser and Andrew Miller, "Fraud Fallout Forces Democratic Gov Tim Walz to Abandon Minnesota Re-election Bid," Fox News, January 5, 2026.
• Al Perrotta, "Feeding Our Future Fraud Mastermind Sentenced," The Daily Signal, May 21, 2026.
• Jasmyn Jordan, "Tim Scott: Republicans Will 'Hold the Senate Majority Without Question'," Breitbart, September 30, 2026.