Advisor Behind Trump’s First Term Economy Just Revealed the Prescription He Says is Exactly What To Do Right Now
Gas just hit almost $4 a gallon – up more than a dollar in less than four weeks.
Gary Cohn built the Trump economic boom, and now he's watching a rogue regime try to dismantle it.
What he told Fox Business this week is the news every American investor needs to hear right now.
The Man Who Built the Tax Cuts Is Sounding the Alarm
Cohn isn't a critic of Trump – he designed the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and served as Director of the National Economic Council in Trump's first term.
That makes him one of the most credible voices alive on what makes or breaks an American economic boom.
So when he goes on Fox Business and says markets are hanging on "every word" coming out of the Middle East, that's not a partisan shot.
That's a warning from the inside.
"Since we've been involved in this issue, this war in the Middle East, markets have been hanging on every word," Cohn said Monday on The Claman Countdown.
Why Oil Is the Only Number That Matters Right Now
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on March 4 – and global energy markets have not recovered since.
About 20% of the world's crude oil and natural gas normally flows through that narrow waterway.
With U.S. ships blocked, the effects hit American wallets almost immediately.
The national average for regular gasoline sat at $2.94 the day the U.S. struck Iran.
It's now $3.95 – a dollar jump in less than a month.
Cohn didn't sugarcoat what the closure has done to the investment landscape.
"Movement in oil… it's weighing down heavily on stock markets and other assets," he said.
"So right now, the biggest determinant in where we go in our short-term economy and long-term economy is what goes on in the Middle East. It is the price of oil. Everything else economically is in pretty fair shape."
Everything Trump built – the growth, the jobs, the market gains – is still intact.
It's all being held hostage by one choke point on the other side of the world.
Iran Has Played This Card Before
This isn't the first time a rogue regime used oil as a weapon against America.
The 1973 Arab oil embargo quadrupled gas prices overnight and triggered a recession that helped end a presidency.
The Iranian Revolution in 1979 and the Iran-Iraq War in 1980 produced a second energy crisis that finished off Jimmy Carter.
The Persian Gulf War in 1990 caused another spike that rattled global markets for months.
The Dallas Federal Reserve has already quantified what the current closure means: a shutdown removing 20% of global oil supplies is expected to push West Texas Intermediate crude to $98 per barrel and cut global GDP growth by nearly 3 percentage points in Q2 alone.
Brent crude already hit $126 per barrel at its peak – the highest since 2022.
The International Energy Agency called it the greatest global energy security challenge in history.
Cohn's Game Plan – and Why You Need One
Cohn's message to American investors wasn't panic – it was preparation.
"I think volatility can be your friend, and it can be your enemy," he said. "Because remember, fear and greed are what drive markets. Volatility enhances fear and enhances greed."
His advice was direct: know your numbers before the phone rings, not after.
"What the volatility means is you have to have a game plan," Cohn said. "If you know where you wanna buy, and you know what you wanna sell, you will get opportunities to get in and out of markets that you may not have seen and think was possible."
JPMorgan already slashed its 2026 year-end S&P 500 target from 7,600 to 7,200, citing rising geopolitical uncertainty.
Goldman Sachs warned markets are on the cusp of a correction.
Cohn himself put it plainly in a separate interview: "I think right now we're more in a stagflationary environment. We don't have growth, but we have prices increasing."
That's the voice of someone who watched fear and greed detonate portfolios from both sides of a trade desk – and is telling you not to be next.
The Pain Is Temporary – the Payoff Is Permanent
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has been clear and consistent: this is a short-term disruption with a long-term payoff.
"Once the national security objectives of Operation Epic Fury are fully achieved, Americans will see oil and gas prices drop rapidly, potentially even lower than they were prior to the start of the operation," Leavitt said.
On Monday, oil prices tumbled after Trump announced productive talks with Iran and postponed strikes on Iranian power infrastructure – proof that markets will snap back the moment the strait reopens.
Cohn confirmed exactly that: markets are "fickle" and move fast on just a hint of good news.
Iran picked this fight, and Trump is finishing it.
The regime that funded terrorism, built toward a nuclear bomb, and tried to strangle the global economy is being neutralized.
When it's done, gas prices drop, markets surge, and Iran never pulls this lever again.
That's not a bad trade.
Sources:
- Nora Moriarty, "Markets hanging on 'every word' as US-Iran conflict nears one month, former NEC director warns," Fox Business, March 23, 2026.
- "Former top Trump economic adviser Gary Cohn: Higher gas prices are recession worthy," Yahoo Finance, March 19, 2026.
- "Strait of Hormuz closure and economic impact," Dallas Federal Reserve, March 20, 2026.
- "From Biden's 'war' on gas prices to 'small price': Trump shrugs off gas surge amid Iran conflict," Fox News, March 11, 2026.
- "The economy has a Strait of Hormuz deadline for Trump: Two weeks," CNBC, March 22, 2026.
- "Oil tumbles nearly 11% after Trump puts hold on strikes against Iran energy infrastructure," CNBC, March 23, 2026.
