Cornyn Survived Texas With $70 Million and Now Faces the Voters Who Hate Him Most

John Cornyn wrote Joe Biden's gun control bill and signed his name to it.

He spent $70 million trying to make Texans forget the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act exists.

They haven't forgotten – and the voters who remember most are the ones who show up in May.

Cornyn Gun Control Record Follows Him Into the Runoff

Cornyn limped into a May 26 runoff Tuesday night, pulling 43% against Ken Paxton's 41% with a 24-year Senate career and the entire Republican establishment behind him – and a spending advantage of roughly 17-to-1 over his primary challenger.

Paxton announced his Senate bid last April on Laura Ingraham's show with a simple message: Cornyn sold Texas gun owners out to Joe Biden.

He wasn't wrong.

In 2022, Cornyn personally shepherded the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act through the Senate – the largest federal gun grab in nearly three decades.

The law expanded background checks, funded state red flag confiscation programs, and created new federal crimes for firearms purchases.

Trump called it the first step in a movement to "TAKE YOUR GUNS AWAY."

The Texas GOP formally censured Cornyn.

Gun rights groups launched campaigns to destroy him.

None of it mattered to the Washington establishment, which rallied around their man and opened the checkbook.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune got involved.

Rick Perry's political operation pledged to spend "whatever we need."

Pro-Cornyn groups poured roughly $69 million into ads while Paxton's allies spent $4 million.

The most expensive Senate primary in American history – over $125 million in total advertising – and the best Cornyn could manage was 43%.

Why Paxton Wins the Texas Senate Runoff in May

Runoff elections in Texas are not general elections.

They are not even regular primaries.

Runoffs pull the hardest core of the Republican base – the voters who show up twice, who care enough to come back in May when most people have moved on.

Those are Paxton's voters – the ones the gun grabber is now asking for a fifth term.

When Paxton entered the race, polling showed him beating Cornyn by double digits.

The $70 million ad blitz closed that gap – but didn't close it enough.

The final Emerson College survey before Tuesday had Paxton at 40% and Cornyn at 36%.

Among the most conservative primary voters, Paxton led by 14 points.

That's the electorate showing up in May.

Cornyn's only path to survival now runs through the one man he can't control: Donald Trump.

A University of Houston survey found that 55% of likely GOP primary voters would back whoever Trump endorsed.

Trump has called Cornyn "a great senator" and Paxton "a great Attorney General" in the same breath – at the same campaign stop in Corpus Christi – and has so far refused to pick a side.

His allies in Washington want Cornyn.

His base wants Paxton.

Paxton addressed the spending gap directly: "Texas is not for sale."

The RINO Pattern Texas Republicans Are Finally Breaking

The establishment always does this.

They find the RINO who betrayed the base, pour unlimited money into propping him up, and then act shocked when the voters still don't buy it.

Lisa Murkowski survived Alaska by rigging the ranked-choice voting system.

Mitt Romney retired rather than face the same fate in Utah.

Thom Tillis nearly got primaried out in North Carolina before surviving by the skin of his teeth.

The Republican base has been systematically hunting down the senators who helped Democrats pass gun control, and Cornyn is the biggest fish they haven't caught yet.

That changes in May.

The political math is brutal for Cornyn.

Wesley Hunt – who pulled 13% on Tuesday – represents votes that have no natural home in the Cornyn column.

Hunt ran to Cornyn's right on guns, repeatedly calling out Cornyn's record on the Second Amendment.

Those voters don't go back to the guy who wrote Biden's gun control agenda.

They go to Paxton.

Meanwhile, Cornyn is already facing questions about whether any amount of money can overcome what he's done.

When a reporter asked Cornyn on Fox News whether Democrats have a real shot at flipping his seat, he said "absolutely."

That's not confidence.

That's a man who knows exactly how much trouble he's in – and if he survives May, the author of Biden's gun control agenda will face Democrat Texas State Representative James Talarico who defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett after the Democrat establishment pulled out dirty tricks to ensure the more electable Talarico emerged.

Around the Country: Other Primary Results March 3

Tuesday wasn't just about Cornyn and Paxton.

Dan Crenshaw – the eyepatch-wearing Ukraine hawk who spent years picking fights with the MAGA base – got wiped out in his own primary by state Rep. Steve Toth, 57% to 39%.

Crenshaw was the only House Republican on the ballot in Texas without Trump's endorsement, and voters made him pay for it.

Ted Cruz twisted the knife by endorsing Toth in the final days, reportedly after a tense airport confrontation with Crenshaw.

In North Carolina, Trump-endorsed former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley cruised to the Republican Senate nomination and will face former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper in November.

That race is shaping up as one of the most consequential of the midterm cycle – Democrats need it to have any realistic path to retaking the Senate, and Cooper has never lost an election in nearly 50 years of running.

In Arkansas, Tom Cotton had no such drama.

The senator dispatched his primary challengers without breaking a sweat and will coast to reelection in November in a state that hasn't been competitive since before most of his voters were born.

The theme across all three states was the same: voters who stray from the MAGA lane get punished, and voters who stay in it get rewarded.

Crenshaw learned that the hard way.

Cornyn may be next.

Sources:

• Andi Shae Napier, "Longtime RINO Senator Lives to Fight Another Day, but Foe Will Have One More Shot to Oust Him," Daily Caller News Foundation, Mar. 3, 2026.
• Texas Tribune, "Cornyn, Paxton Advance to Runoff in Texas Republican Primary," Mar. 3, 2026.
• Breitbart, "Cornyn, Paxton Advance to Runoff in Texas Republican Primary," Mar. 3, 2026.
• KERA News, "How John Cornyn's Historic Gun Safety Bill Has Become a Reelection Liability," Oct. 27, 2025.
• Ammoland, "RINOs Betrayals on Guns Will Not Be Forgotten," Sept. 15, 2025.
• Texas Gun Rights, "Cornyn and Establishment Gun Lobby Caves by Backing Down on SHORT Act and HPA Fight," July 24, 2025.
• CBS News, "Texas GOP Senate Primary Heading to Runoff Between Sen. John Cornyn and AG Ken Paxton," Mar. 3, 2026.
• The Texan, "Texas Rep. Steve Toth Defeats Rep. Dan Crenshaw in Republican Primary," Mar. 3, 2026.
• Fox News, "Paxton, Cornyn Head to Texas GOP Runoff After Wesley Hunt Finishes Third," Mar. 3, 2026.
• WRAL, "Cooper-Whatley U.S. Senate Race a True Test of Where the State Is," Mar. 3, 2026.