A polling guru said these signs point to a Trump victory

Everyone is trying to read the tea leaves to figure out what will happen tomorrow.

One expert said Americans may not be shocked by the result.

And a polling guru said these signs point to a Trump victory.

CNN data expert said three signs point to a Trump win 

CNN data cruncher Harry Enten said unlike 2016, Democrats shouldn’t be surprised to wake up the day after the election and find out Donald Trump was the victor.

“If Republicans win come next week – Donald Trump wins come next week, the signs all along will have been obvious,” Enten told CNN host John Berman and the network’s viewers.

The signal Enten saw that he believed pointed to a Trump victory was the right track/wrong track number.

Enten said historically the incumbent party lost re-election when the right track number averaged 25%.

Today just 28% of Americans think the country is on the right track and Enten says there isn’t a single example of an incumbent party winning reelection with those poll numbers.

“So the bottom line is very few Americans think the country is on the right track at this particular point. It tracks much more with when the incumbent party loses than with [when] it wins. In fact, I went back through history, there isn’t a single time in which 28% of the American public thinks the country is going on the right track in which the incumbent party actually won,” Enten said.

Enten also pointed to Joe Biden’s low approval ratings – which sits at 40 percent in the Real Clear Politics polling average as another telltale sign Democrats are in trouble.

Finally, Enten said Democrats were making massive voter registration gains in key swing swings.

In Pennsylvania, for example, Republicans sliced the Democrat registration edge from 630,000 in 2021 to 300,000 right now.

A bigger pool of voters to fish from in the key battlegrounds meant an increased chance of winning.

“Republicans are putting more Republicans in the electorate, the Democratic number versus the Republican number has shrunk, and so the bottom line is if Republicans win come next week, Donald Trump wins come next week, the signs all along will have been obvious,” Enten continued.

“We would look at the right direction being very low, Joe Biden’s approval rating being very low, and Republicans really registering numbers. You can’t say you weren’t warned.”

What determines who wins elections 

James Carville famously said “it’s the economy, stupid” for why Bill Clinton would win the 1992 Presidential Election.

More elections are determined by the political environment – which is the mood among the electorate about the direction of the country, the economy and the incumbent party.

If Donald Trump wins a second term on Tuesday, then Harry Enten would update Carville’s saying to “it’s the environment, stupid.”