These secret poll numbers scared the hell out of Kamala Harris
The 2024 Election has been a contest like none other.
Now the latest twist is an unwelcome surprise for Democrats.
And these secret poll numbers scared the hell out of Kamala Harris.
Private polling data paints bleak picture for Kamala Harris
Public polls by media organizations and universities show Vice President Kamala Harris in the lead both nationally and in many of the battleground states.
But the public polling woefully undercounted former President Donald Trump’s support in the 2016 and 2020 Elections.
Pollsters failed to accurately measure Trump’s support with white working-class voters, especially in the industrial Midwest.
Private polls are different.
Campaigns, super PACs, and interest groups possess the big bucks to spend on voter screens to make sure they are reaching a representative sample.
Fox News contributor Guy Benson posted a thread on X revealing private polling data he gained access to.
Benson wrote that in late July/early August, a group conducting high-quality private polling found Kamala-mania sweeping the battlegrounds.
Trump’s numbers tanked and Kamala surged into the lead across the board.
“~10 days after Biden was forced out, a leader at a major right-leaning organization (which spends significant resources on high-quality, private polling) told me their data had taken a serious downward turn for Trump across key states & Senate picture looked worse,” Benson wrote.
Trump’s pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted this “sugar high” would come and go.
The data Benson shared proved that was the case.
Kamala Harris’ support fades
Even though Kamala Harris came off her convention, by the end of August her support was in decline.
Benson reported Trump’s poll numbers rebounded just as Fabrizio predicted.
“Trump’s leads were gone & he was trailing in several battlegrounds. In Senate races, most theoretically winnable races were looking like duds for the GOP. The trend continued…until it didn’t. There has been a rebound, now detectable over more than one poll in their series,” Benson added.
Benson then posted the results of the private polls taken just before Labor Day.
Trump led in Michigan and Nevada while tying Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania.
Benson wrote that “whether you believe these numbers or not, the trend is notable. These were the results from polling that was in the field just before Labor Day weekend.”
…whether you believe these numbers or not, the trend is notable. These were the results from polling that was in the field just before Labor Day weekend.
Top to bottom are Montana (polling due to Senate race), Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada & Wisconsin: pic.twitter.com/vxXLv8S0cm
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) September 4, 2024
There is now an open question about if Kamala Harris peaked too soon.
She did surge in the polls upon replacing President Joe Biden.
But it is increasingly looking like that surge was Kamala rallying a dispirited Democrat Party base.
The longer Kamala is out on the trail and the more voters get to see the actual Kamala, the less appealing the idea of her being President becomes.
Democrats wanted to switch out Joe Biden at the last possible moment for just this very reason.
A European-style snap election was the only way to sneak Kamala Harris through as the Democrat Party strategy of playing stall ball could work for a three-month race to the finish line.
