Shocking new private polling numbers are Kamala Harris’ worst nightmare
The big debate came and went.
Everyone wants to know who’s up and who’s down.
And now new private polling numbers are Kamala Harris’ worst nightmare.
Internal polling shows Trump gaining after the debate
Both campaigns, the political press, and the voters anxiously awaited polling data to see if the “big night” the media claimed Vice President Kamala Harris had would translate into a bump in the polls.
She received no bounce after naming Minnesota Governor Tim Walz her running mate.
And Kamala received nothing from the convention.
The debate as the last surefire event on the calendar before Election Day where the candidates held control in their own hands to change the trajectory of the race in their favor.
Two days after the debate, Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio released the results of the internal survey the Trump team conducted of the seven battleground states.
Fabrizio’s polls showed Kamala’s numbers flat and former President Donald Trump gaining ground in both a straight head to head match up with her as well as an expanded ballot test with third party candidates.
Per Tony Fabrizio’s “confidential memo” for the Trump-Vance campaign, Harris numbers “remained flat” and Trump had a pretty good night. pic.twitter.com/P98oZqba1P
— Philip Melanchthon Wegmann (@PhilipWegmann) September 12, 2024
Reporting and focus group data also show the debate not helping Kamala.
The New York Times and the BBC interviewed voters in battleground states who either were sticking with Trump and left disappointed by the fact that Kamala didn’t lay out a clear agenda and instead spent her time trolling him.
A focus group for Maslansky and Partners that President Lee Carter shared with Fox News showed independent voters giving highly positive responses to Trump’s answers on energy, immigration, inflation and the economy.
Reuters found that six in ten voters in their focus groups switched to Trump following the debate.
An Insider Advantage poll from Michigan taken after the debate showed Trump up one point.
And a post-debate Morning Consult poll showed Kamala gaining one point on her lead over Trump, a result well within the margin of error.
Fabrizio’s past predictions
When Kamala Harris entered the race, Fabrizio released a memo predicting a bounce for her.
That’s exactly what happened and she surged to the lead.
But Fabrizio also predicted Kamala’s surge would fade like a “sugar high.”
That’s also exactly what happened.
Fabrizio is now throwing down the gauntlet that the debate will provide no bounce for Kamala.
Campaigns hire pollsters based on their track record for accuracy.
Time will tell if Fabrizio’s numbers are right or wrong.
As they say, the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.
But pollsters who deliver inaccurate numbers on Presidential campaigns aren’t long for the world of bigtime professional politics.
