Kamala Harris’ jaw hit the floor when she saw this post-debate poll
The media hailed the debate with Donald Trump as a great victory for Kamala Harris.
But was it?
And Kamala Harris’ jaw hit the floor when she saw this post-debate poll.
Polls showing Kamala Harris winning the debate, not moving the race
Polls from CNN, YouGov, and the Trafalgar Group all showed Vice President Kamala Harris “won” the debate.
But did she merely win an optics contest and not the hearts and minds of voters?
Ledger conducted a survey for the New York Post of 1,174 likely voters from September 10 through the 11th.
This poll showed – like the others – that by double digits, voters thought Kamala won the debate.
“In the survey conducted by Leger, half of respondents who watched at least some portion of the ABC News debate said Harris was the winner, while 29% said Trump had gotten the better of the VP and 13% said neither candidate had won the showdown,” the New York Post reported.
But the results of the horse race told a different story.
Ledger’s poll for the New York Post showed former President Donald Trump actually gaining support and cutting into the lead Ledger found Kamala holding before the start of the Democratic National Convention.
“However, the poll also shows Trump gained one percentage point of support among likely voters from a pre-debate survey taken following the Democratic National Convention in late August, while Harris held steady,” the Post also reported.
Post-debate poll by Leger/@nypost
🟦 Harris: 50%
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟪 Other: 3%
——
Who won the debate?Harris: 50%
Trump: 29%
Neither: 13%
——
#79 (2.0/3.0) | 9/10-11 | 1,174 LVhttps://t.co/6stCIFVERm— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 12, 2024
The debate’s impact on the race may be overstated
CNN data analyst Harry Enten predicted a Kamala surge based on CNN’s post-debate poll showing 63 percent of viewers thought she won the debate.
“And given how close this race is nationally, given how close it is in the swing states, do not be surprised if Kamala Harris jumps out to a lead nationally. And don’t be surprised if she jumps out to a slight small lead in those key battleground states,” Enten told viewers.
“It should still probably be a close race based upon history. But no doubt, at least based upon history, we should expect Kamala Harris to receive a polling bump. In a race as tight as this one that would certainly be welcomed,” Enten added.
But the Ledger poll didn’t immediately pick up any shift in the race.
If anything, Donald Trump benefited.
Snap polls post-debate can foreshadow major movement.
After President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance on June 27, Ledger’s post-debate poll showed a nine-point shift to Trump.
“In a poll following that debate conducted for The Post, Leger found that Biden’s support among likely voters had dropped two percentage points from before the debate, while Trump had gained seven percentage points for a total swing of nine percentage points against the incumbent,” the Post reported.
Ledger’s poll showing the debate not boosting Kamala was another data point that voters judged her the winner on style, but Trump the winner on substance.
A Reuters focus group showed six of the ten voters saying they would vote for Trump after watching the debate.
If Kamala Harris was hoping for a sea change moment in the debate, she might be sorely disappointed.
