The most accurate presidential poll just revealed a surprising result
Public polls show Joe Biden leading Donald Trump.
But these polls have been all over the place in recent elections.
And now the most accurate presidential poll just revealed a surprising result.
Since 1976, the University of Michigan has conducted a consumer sentiment poll asking Americans who they think will win the election.
For months, the poll has shown a tied race.
That is notable because since 1976 this poll correctly forecast the winner of every election except in 2016, when consumers picked Hillary Clinton over Trump by a two-to-one margin.
In the University of Michigan consumer sentiment poll released Friday, forty-eight percent of consumers forecast a Biden victory and 47 percent forecast a Trump victory. This virtual tie has existed in data from July through September.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey approaches political polling differently than most other polls. Instead of asking consumers who they prefer or intend to vote for, it asks who they think will win the election.
“The data from July to September indicate a virtual tie. This question has been asked since Carter ran against Ford in 1976, and in every presidential election, consumers correctly chose the winner, save one: when Trump ran against Clinton in 2016, two-thirds of consumers expected a Clinton victory,” said Richard Curtin, the survey’s chief economist.
The Trump campaign has long maintained that their internal polls show a much different race than the public polling.
Campaign officials say they have identified voters who did not vote for the President in 2016 but will do so in 2020.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showing a dead heat between Joe Biden and Donald Trump may be evidence that they are right.